Unintended consequences of price controls: An application to allowance markets

Price controls established in a cap-and-trade allowance market are intended to reduce cost uncertainty by constraining allowance prices between a ceiling and floor; however, they could provide opportunities for strategic actions by firms that would lower government revenue and increase emissions. In particular, when the ceiling price is supported by introducing new allowances into the market, firms could choose to buy allowances at the ceiling price, regardless of the prevailing market price, in order to lower the equilibrium price of all allowances. Those purchases could either be transacted by firms intending to manipulate the market price or be induced through the introduction of inaccurate information about the cost of emissions abatement. Theory and simulations using allowance elasticity estimates for U.S. firms suggest that the manipulation could be profitable under the stylized setting and assumptions evaluated in the paper, although in practice many other conditions will determine its use.     

Changes in CO2 flux for different recovery processes of desertification in the alpine meadows of Northwest Sichuan北大核心CSCD

Desertification has emerged as a serious threat to the alpine meadows of Northwest Sichuan in recent decades. Artificial vegetation had certain effects on desertification recovery, while how the CO2 flux changed and its reasons are still unclear. During the growing season in 2016 (i.e., from July to September), we selected the desertified alpine meadows with different recovery degrees, including the early stage of restoration, the middle stage of restoration, the late stage of restoration, and control (the unrecovered desertification meadow) as four transects. CO2 flux was measured by the instrument LI-8100, and the microenvironment factors that affected CO2 flux changes were analyzed. The results showed that the carbon sequestration function of desertified alpine meadows gradually increased with the degree of recovery. Net ecosystem exchange (NEE) were -1.61, -3.55, and -4.38 μmol m-2 s-1 in the early, mid-term, and late transects, respectively, and the most dramatic changes occurred from the early stage to mid-term stage, increasing by 120.50%. Both ecosystem respiration (ER) and soil respiration (SR) were enhanced significantly with restoration (P < 0.05). In mid or late July, NEE, ER, and SR reached their maximum values, and thereafter, the indicators varied to near zero (P < 0.05). During the whole growing season, the daily dynamic in CO2 flux for the control alpine meadow was mild and retained the trend of continuous release all day, but that in the desertified alpine meadow was a single peak pattern. Moreover, with restoration process, the peak of CO2 flux increased and reached a peak in the late stage of the recovery process. The regression analysis showed that there was a significant positive correlation between CO2 flux and vegetation coverage, aboveground biomass, and soil moisture (0-5 cm) (P < 0.01), and a weak correlation with 0-5-cm soil temperature (P < 0.01). This indicates that topsoil moisture (5 cm) is a more significant factor for CO2 flux than topsoil temperature during the growing season in the restoration of desertified alpine meadows in Northwest Sichuan. In general, the vegetation recovery significantly improved the carbon-sequestration ability of the desertified alpine meadows during the growing season in Northwest Sichuan, and at the middle stage of restoration, the carbon-sequestration ability improved significantly due to vegetation restoration and increase in topsoil (0-5 cm) moisture. © 2018 Science Press. All rights reserved.     

碳中和——中国发展转型的机遇与挑战

碳中和是《巴黎协定》提出的到21世纪末在全球范围内实现人为活动排放的温室气体排放总量与大自然吸收总量相平衡,这是《联合国气候变化框架公约》应对气候变化问题的终极目标。本文从碳中和的目的、本质和进展分析入手,提出了在实现碳中和问题上中国的机遇与挑战。     

Development and optimization of an Agro-BGC ecosystem model for C4 perennial grasses

Extrapolating simulations of bioenergy crop agro-ecosystems beyond data-rich sites requires biophysically accurate ecosystem models and careful estimation of model parameters not available in the literature. To increase biophysical accuracy we added C₄ perennial grass functionality and agricultural practices to the Biome-BGC (BioGeochemical Cycles) ecosystem model. This new model, Agro-BGC, includes enzyme-driven C₄ photosynthesis, individual live and dead leaf, stem, and root carbon and nitrogen pools, separate senescence and litter fall processes, fruit growth, optional annual seeding, flood irrigation, a growing degree day phenology with a killing frost option, and a disturbance handler that simulates nitrogen fertilization, harvest, fire, and incremental irrigation. To obtain spatially generalizable vegetation parameters we used a numerical method to optimize five unavailable parameters for Panicum virgatum (switchgrass) using biomass yield data from three sites: Mead, Nebraska, Rockspring, Pennsylvania, and Mandan, North Dakota. We then verified simulated switchgrass yields at three independent sites in Illinois (IL). Agro-BGC is more accurate than Biome-BGC in representing the physiology and dynamics of C₄ grass and management practices associated with agro-ecosystems. The simulated two-year average mature yields with single-site Rockspring optimization have Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) of 70, 152, and 162 and biases of 43, −87, 156 g carbon m⁻² for Shabbona, Urbana, and Simpson IL, respectively. The simulated annual yields in June, August, October, December, and February have RMSEs of 114, 390, and 185 and biases of −19, −258, and 147 g carbon m⁻² for Shabbona, Urbana, and Simpson IL, respectively. These RMSE and bias values are all within the largest 90% confidence interval around respective IL site measurements. Twenty-four of twenty-six simulated annual yields with Rockspring optimization are within 95% confidence intervals of Illinois site measurements during the mature fourth and fifth years of growth. Ten of eleven simulated two-year average mature yields with Rockspring optimization are within 65% confidence intervals of Illinois site measurements and the eleventh is within the 95% confidence interval. Rockspring optimized Agro-BGC achieves accuracies comparable to those of two previously published models: Agricultural Land Management Alternatives with Numerical Assessment Criteria (ALMANAC) and Integrated Farm System Model (IFSM). Agro-BGC suffers from static vegetation parameters that can change seasonally and as plants age. Using mature plant data for optimization mitigates this deficiency. Our results suggest that a multi-site optimization scheme using mature plant data from more sites would be adequate for generating spatially generalizable vegetation parameters for simulating mature bioenergy crop agro-ecosystems with Agro-BGC.     

Modelling forest management within a global vegetation model—Part 1: Model structure and general behaviour

This article describes a new forest management module (FMM) that explicitly simulates forest stand growth and management within a process-based global vegetation model (GVM) called ORCHIDEE. The net primary productivity simulated by ORCHIDEE is used as an input to the FMM. The FMM then calculates stand and management characteristics such as stand density, tree size distribution, tree growth, the timing and intensity of thinnings and clear-cuts, wood extraction and litter generated after thinning. Some of these variables are then fed back to ORCHIDEE. These computations are made possible with a distribution-based modelling of individual tree size. The model derives natural mortality from the relative density index (rdi), a competition index based on tree size and stand density. Based on the common forestry management principle of avoiding natural mortality, a set of rules is defined to calculate the recurrent intensity and frequency of forestry operations during the stand lifetime. The new-coupled model is called ORCHIDEE-FM (forest management).The general behaviour of ORCHIDEE-FM is analysed for a broadleaf forest in north-eastern France. Flux simulation throughout a forest rotation compare well with the literature values, both in absolute values and dynamics.Results from ORCHIDEE-FM highlight the impact of forest management on ecosystem C-cycling, both in terms of carbon fluxes and stocks. In particular, the average net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of 225 gC m⁻² year⁻¹ is close to the biome average of 311 gC m⁻² year⁻¹. The NEP of the “unmanaged” case is 40% lower, leading us to conclude that management explains 40% of the cumulated carbon sink over 150 years. A sensitivity analysis reveals 4 major avenues for improvement: a better determination of initial conditions, an improved allocation scheme to explain age-related decline in productivity, and an increased specificity of both the self-thinning curve and the biomass-diameter allometry.     

提高碳汇潜力：量化树种和造林模式对碳储量的影响

全球气候变化背景下,造林再造林固定的碳可以抵消温室气体减限排量。通过造林再造林增加森林面积可以增加林业碳汇,在土地面积有限的情况下,提高造林质量——在有限的造林面积上固定更多的碳是十分必要的。树种和造林模式的选择是增加森林生态系统碳汇的重要管理决策。文章综述了树种和造林模式对生态系统的碳储量的影响。树种从生物量的积累,凋落物和土壤碳储存,以及木材密度、碳贮存量等几个方面探讨其对生态系统碳库的影响。混交林能充分利用立地条件、改善树木营养状况,并且可以减少病虫害和森林火灾。同时分析了我国在森林经营方面存在的问题和改善途径,以期为该领域的研究提供参考。     

孔径分布和溶液浓度对碳气凝胶电极电吸附除盐性能的影响分析

在不同进水浓度下,采用两种比表面积相似但是孔径分布不同的碳气凝胶作为电极进行了一系列电吸附除盐平衡试验.结果表明,随着溶液浓度的变化,不同的孔径分布对碳气凝胶除盐效果影响不一样.其机理为双电层的存在,使得碳气凝胶空隙内的双电层扩散层相互叠加;同时,根据德拜定律,碳气凝胶空隙内的双电层扩散层在不同浓度溶液中厚度不同,从而使得双电层扩散层相互叠加的情况也随浓度变化而变化.这两种作用共同导致了实验结果.当溶液浓度为 0.01 mol·L-1时,选择主要孔径不小于20hm的碳气凝胶电极;当溶液浓度为 0.1 mol·L-1时,应选用主要孔径不小于 10nm 的材料;当溶液浓度为几 mol·L-1时.则分散层几乎消失,孔径大小对电吸附性能影响几乎不考虑.     

合成氨副产CO2气的回收与利用

CO2是《京都议定书》要求减排的6种温室气体之一,《京都议定书》还确立了有助于发展中国家获得资金和先进技术的清洁发展机制（CDM）。本文结合实际工程案例,介绍了合成氨副产CO2气的回收和利用方法,为我国氮肥行业申请CDM项目资助,回收利用CO2,减少CO2排放提供技术参考。     

Impact of bioenergy crops in a carbon dioxide constrained world: an application of the MiniCAM energy-agriculture and land use model

In the coming century, modern bioenergy crops have the potential to play a crucial role in the global energy mix, especially under policies to reduce carbon dioxide emissions as proposed by many in the international community. Previous studies have not fully addressed many of the dynamic interactions and effects of a policy-induced expansion of bioenergy crop production, particularly on crop yields and human food demand. This study combines an updated agriculture and land use (AgLU) model with a well-developed energy-economic model to provide an analysis of the effects of bioenergy crops on energy, agricultural and land use systems. The results indicate that carbon dioxide mitigation policies can stimulate a large production of bioenergy crops, dependent on the level of the policy. This production of bioenergy crops can lead to several impacts on the agriculture and land use system: decreases in forestland and unmanaged land, decreases in the average yield of food crops, increases in the prices of food crops, and decreases in the level of human demand of calories.

Carbon neutral Biggar: calculating the community carbon footprint and renewable energy options for footprint reduction

The objective of this research was to develop a community carbon footprint model that could be used to assess the size and major components of a community’s carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. The town of Biggar aims to become Scotland’s first carbon neutral town. As expected for this rural community, car transport accounted for nearly half of the CO₂ emissions, with natural gas and electricity consumption resulting in a further 24% and 12% of total emissions, respectively, and air travel being the last major component at 10% of emissions. An assessment was also made of the wind and solar resources of the town. One large wind turbine would provide the town’s electricity, while three to four turbines would be needed to offset all CO₂ emissions. In contrast, offsetting by tree planting would require in the region of 2,000 ha of trees.